INDEX:

HR still climbing, up another $13/ton ($0.65/cwt) this week….now at $736 ($36.80)

CR stayed flat at $865 ($43.25)

GV up $14/ton to $933 ($46.65)

This week saw another increase in the HR market. Additionally, we now see the potential remedies available to the current administration in relation to the Section 232 case. The commerce department’s report suggested the following:

 

The options

The report suggests three options for each, ranging from overall tariffs to targeted tariffs to overall quotas.

Aluminum:

  1. Broad option: 7.7% tariff on all aluminum exports from all countries.
  2. Targeted option: 23.6% tariff on all products from China, Hong Kong, Russia, Venezuela and Vietnam. Other countries face quota set at 100% of 2017 exports to U.S.
  3. Overall quota option: A quota on imports from all countries to a maximum of 86.7% of their 2017 exports to U.S.

Steel:

  1. Broad option: 24% tariff on all steel imports from all countries.
  2. Targeted option: Tariff of 53% (at least) on steel imports from Brazil, China, Costa Rica, Egypt, India, Malaysia, Korea, Russia, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey and Vietnam. Other countries have quota set at 100% of 2017 exports to U.S.
  3. Overall quota option: Quota for all countries of 63% of their 2017 exports to U.S.

There seems to be contention within the administrations inner circle. Mnuchin, Tillerson as well as Mattis are not supporters of the tariffs and or quotas.

Finally, the President may do nothing or he may be the one to fire the opening shot in a global trade war. Several predict that the 232 actions chosen will be a non-event, applying the remedies with surgical precision.

Stay tuned, it’s about to get interesting